Observations on UW Recruiting

In the ersatz Marxism of the NFL Draft, the team with the worst record gets the first pick, the second-worst record the second pick, and so on.  That is not so in the cutthroat marketplace of college football, however, where enduring dynasties are built on the sustained recruitment of high school athletes and the rich most certainly get richer.  USC, fairly or unfairly, owned the Pac-10 for most of the ‘00s—both a cause and an effect of dominating west coast recruiting throughout the decade.  USC finished with the conference’s top-rated (per Rivals.com) recruiting class each year since 2003, and had the nation’s top-rated class four times between 2004 and 2010.

The Trojans’ unmatched success on the recruiting trail produced a marked talent advantage that, together with strong player development and modern schemes, Pete Carroll & Co., cashed-in for a disproportionate share of wins and championships.  For years, the other SoCal has amassed the talent to challenge Trojan empire by reeling in a series of classes ranked #2 in the Pac (2008-2010), even if Neuheisel’s recruiting mojo hasn’t translated to results on Saturdays.   Now, with plenty of cracks running in the USC façade and Neuheisel’s snake oil running thin, the door is open for other conference powers to break the L.A. death-grip on Pac-12 recruiting.  Oregon, with its post-modern offense  and the Phil Knight hook-up, has nipped at the Trojans’ heels for several seasons now—and after a BCS Title Game run in 2010 signed Rivals.com’s #9-ranked class nationally in 2011.  Other teams ready to share in the wealth include a headless Stanford Cardinal, the spinster in Berkeley, and your Washington Huskies.

In every recruiting cycle from 2005 to 2009, Washington landed classes in the middle of the conference pack or lower, with the quality trending downward at the time of Sarkisian’s December 2008 arrival.  But from the ashes of the Willingham flame-out, Sarkisian has managed to reverse the trend over the past two seasons.  According to Rivals.com, Washington put together the Pac-12’s fifth-best class in 2011, a one-spot improvement over the (#6-ranked) 2010 monster class and Washington’s best finish in the conference recruiting battle since 2007.  Scout.com took an even brighter view of Sarkisian's 2010 haul, ranking that class as the third-best in the Pac: 

UW Recruiting Classes – Pac-12 Rank

Year	Rivals Rank	Scout Rank
2005	12	12
2004	6	6
2007	5	4
2008	6	3
2009	11	12
2010	6	3
2011	5	5

Sarkisian will need another strong recruiting class in 2012 to complete the process of restoring UW’s roster to a talent level sufficient to compete for the conference titles, but he is off to a solid beginning with a conference-high 15 verbal commitments.  Should UW close the deal with another class in the top-5 of the conference, the Huskies should finally have a talent pool good enough to support 8-10 win expectations on a yearly basis.

2012 Recruiting to date  

	Commits	Rivals Avg.	Scout Avg.
Arizona	7	2.57	2.14
Arizona St.	12	2.17	1.92
California	2	4.0	4.0
Colorado	5	2.6	2.8
Oregon	7	2.86	3.29
Oregon St.	6	3.33	3.17
Stanford	10	2.7	2.4
UCLA	6	2.0	2.67
USC	10	3.5	3.4
Utah	9	2.11	1.78
Washington	15	2.07	2.33
Wash. St.	5	1.2	2.0

*Note that player quality averages are calculated as (total number of stars/number of commits).  Many current 2012 commits have yet to rated by Rivals or Scout, and thus have not been assigned any stars.  Average player-quality rankings should increase for most teams as the recruiting sites complete their evaluations.

Recruiting to Needs

While looking at the quality of a team’s recruiting classes over time provides a general idea of the team’s overall talent level, the value of a specific recruiting class often has more to do with how well the commitments received match the program’s anticipated needs for one or two seasons into the future.  UW’s 2012 class is already shaping-up well in this regard, with three commits already at the WR and CB positions--two of its strongest needs for 2012.  The Huskies have a long way to go in their other two focus areas: offensive line and DT.  Landing either of two highly-touted in-state offensive linemen (Zach Banner or Joshua Garnett) and one of several strong California DT prospects would go a long way toward these goals.  

 Offense & Specialists                             Defense

Position	Need	Commits		Position	Need	Commits
QB	1	2		1tDT	1-2	0
RB	1	1		3tDT	1-2	0
FB	0-1	0		SDE	1-2	1
WR	2	3		WDE	1	1
TE	1	0		SLB	0-1	0
OT	3	1		MLB	0-1	0
OG	1-2	0		WLB	0-1	0
C	1	0		CB	2	3
P	1	1		SS	0-1	1
K	0-1	0		FS	1	0